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Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 1-2 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.53 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 72%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.13 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights