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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 3-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al Okhdood 1.10 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Al Okhdood attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 26%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 74%, Al Okhdood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights