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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Najma 5-2 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.81 xG and Al Najma 0.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Najma outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.68 against Al Najma attack 0.57 / defence 1.38, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 84% | Draw 12% | Al Najma 5%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 84%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al Najma 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Najma's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights