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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.38 / defence 0.65 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.28 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights