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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Hazm 4-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.74 against Al-Hazm attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Hazm 13%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights