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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.51 xG and Al-Fayha 1.14 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.54 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 68%, Al-Fayha 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights