Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Saud University Stadium to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr at King Saud University Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Saud University Stadium this season.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 68% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 68% | Al-Fayha 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.51 xG and Al-Fayha 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.542 / defence 0.860 | Al-Fayha attack 0.902 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.464. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Nassr games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Fayha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al-Fayha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Nassr 2.51 / Al-Fayha 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.542 / def 0.860 | Al-Fayha attack 0.902 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 67% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Nassr 6W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.55
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.64
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
8%
12.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
1%
81.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.14 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 40 games, going 26W 7D 7L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (10W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 12W 5D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.82 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 26W 7D 7L in their last 40 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.05 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 70%, Al-Fayha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Nassr and 60% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Nassr's games and 40% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Nassr's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.51 xG and Al-Fayha 1.14 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.54 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 68%, Al-Fayha 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.