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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 2-3 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 76%, Al-Ettifaq 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights