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Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Najma 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.31 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 17% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights