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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al Najma welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 15:20 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Najma's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Najma register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Najma trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 69% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.31 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.967 / defence 1.313 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.299 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.490. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Al Najma games / 50 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Najma 17% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 71% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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