Al Najma 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al Najma welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 15:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Najma register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Najma trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 69% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.31 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.967 / defence 1.313 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.299 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.490. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Al Najma games / 50 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 17% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 5.88 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 71% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 17% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Najma 1.31 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.967 / def 1.313 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.299 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 15:20 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Najma 1 - 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 17% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Najma 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Najma's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 1-3 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
17%
5.73
19%
5.27
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.85
2.54
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
5.73
17%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
8%
12.68
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
1%
72.66
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.54 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Najma's recent record stands at 0W 4D 12L from 16 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 2L across 16 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Najma have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 5W 0D 2L across 7 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Najma are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.38 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 12L in their last 16 games (0.25 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 11W 3D 2L in their last 16 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.29 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al Najma or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Najma have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Najma 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Najma at 71%, Al-Qadisiyah FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al Najma and 71% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Najma have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Najma's games and 71% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Najma's matches and 71% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Najma 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.31 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 17% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.