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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.95 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.74 / defence 1.37 against Al Shabab attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 23% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Shabab 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Shabab's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights