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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Raed 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 1.70 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Al-Raed attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 34% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 43%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 50%, Al-Raed 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Raed's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.00 PPG, Al-Raed 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights