Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Match Report

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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 0-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.35 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.01 / defence 1.43 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights