Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Kholood's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.95x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
30%
3.32
24%
4.26
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.73 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.