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Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Kholood 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Kholood 0-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.10 xG and Al Okhdood 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 33% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 38%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.11 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights