Al Kholood 0-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:10 UTC.
Form
Al Kholood (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 6W 0D 4L at Ar-Rass Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Al Kholood, 1.00 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Kholood lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 61% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 57% | Al Okhdood 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.10 xG and Al Okhdood 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.890 / defence 1.233 | Al Okhdood attack 0.722 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.357. Data: 28 Al Kholood games / 62 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 33% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Al Okhdood 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 33% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Kholood 1.10 / Al Okhdood 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.890 / def 1.233 | Al Okhdood attack 0.722 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Okhdood xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:10 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood?
Al Kholood 0 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 33% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Okhdood in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.89) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.72x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.41
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Al Okhdood xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.21 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Kholood come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 4D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Al Kholood against 0.89 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Kholood's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.96 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Kholood
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Kholood) and 36% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Okhdood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al Kholood's recent games and 36% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Kholood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Kholood 0-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.10 xG and Al Okhdood 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 33% | Draw 29% | Al Okhdood 38%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.11 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.