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Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Najma 5-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.90 xG and Al Najma 1.09 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Al Najma attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 75%, Al Najma 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Al Najma's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights