🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Kholood at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al Najma encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al Kholood welcome Al Najma to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 16:10 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Kholood at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have recorded 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Kholood carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

In-Play Profile

Al Kholood in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.

Al Najma in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 75% and Al Najma 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 75% | Al Najma 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.90 xG and Al Najma 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.030 / defence 0.943 | Al Najma attack 0.800 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.446. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Al Kholood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al Kholood games / 4 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al Najma 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al Najma 75% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights