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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.65 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 44% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 32%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.14 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights