🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Kholood 1-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 2.04 xG and Al-Hazm 1.37 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hazm attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 25%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 75%, Al-Hazm 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.12 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights