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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al Kholood versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 14:50 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Kholood have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 exceeds their overall 0.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al Kholood's 1.50 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.75 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 62% versus Al-Hazm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 75% | Al-Hazm 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 2.04 xG and Al-Hazm 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.213 / defence 1.075 | Al-Hazm attack 0.831 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.536. Data: 42 Al Kholood games / 8 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Hazm 75% BTTS from recent games.

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