Al Kholood 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 42%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Fayha travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 May 2025, 17:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Kholood's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al-Fayha's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al Kholood's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Kholood, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 59% versus Al-Fayha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 56% | Al-Fayha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.783 / defence 1.081 | Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.461. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Al Kholood games / 66 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Fayha 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 17:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Kholood 1.41 / Al-Fayha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.783 / def 1.081 | Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:25 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Kholood 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.81
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.19 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 4D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (8W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.84 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 10W 4D 18L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al-Fayha 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Kholood) and 56% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 38% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Kholood's matches and 56% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Kholood cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Al-Fayha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.