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Stalemate at Al Kholood's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Al Kholood and Al-Fateh drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.09 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.68 / defence 1.16 against Al-Fateh attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 32% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 38%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.07 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights