Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Qadisiyah FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.86 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.045 / defence 0.984 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.701 / defence 0.548. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.548 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.701 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.86 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.045 / def 0.984 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.701 / def 0.548 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 10% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 71% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
10%
10.44
19%
5.16
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.33
2.47
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
10.44
10%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
8%
11.80
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
1%
123.16
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2.47 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 13D 20L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.28 PPG from 46 outings (32W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.43 points per game from 23 outings (18W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 32W 9D 5L in their last 46 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 61% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.