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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 67%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights