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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG and Al Kholood 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Kholood outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Al Kholood attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 42% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al Kholood 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al Kholood 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights