🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Hazm 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.75 xG and Al-Hazm 0.99 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights