Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.90 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 54% versus Al-Fayha 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Fayha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.831 / defence 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 0.922 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.291. Data: 37 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 37 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Fayha 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 / Al-Fayha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.831 / def 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 0.922 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.92x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.57
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.35
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.22 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 10W 10D 17L from 37 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 15L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.19 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 3W 6D 9L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.22 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Al Khaleej Saihat, 78% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 67% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 78% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha finished level at 0-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 40%, Al-Fayha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.08 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.