🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 66%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.16 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights