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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 December 2025 at 14:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 4 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Fateh trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 64% and Al-Fateh 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 66% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.274 / defence 1.061 | Al-Fateh attack 0.895 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.456. Al Khaleej Saihat carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 44 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Khaleej Saihat carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 4W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 7 – 14 Al-Fateh • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 83% | Win rates: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% / Draw 0% / Al-Fateh 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Al-Fateh (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat as more likely (home 56% / draw 23% / away 20%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (83% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.68 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 69% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W • Al Khaleej Saihat home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Al-Fateh away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Form edge: Al Khaleej Saihat lead by 0.60 PPG (1.40 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Al Khaleej Saihat): Poisson projects 2.30 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Al-Fateh): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.68 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al Khaleej Saihat 7/10, Al-Fateh 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Al Khaleej Saihat — Al Khaleej Saihat at 56% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 / Al-Fateh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.274 / def 1.061 | Al-Fateh attack 0.895 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:35 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
• Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 4W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 7 – 14 Al-Fateh • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 83% | Win rates: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% / Draw 0% / Al-Fateh 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Al-Fateh (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat as more likely (home 56% / draw 23% / away 20%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (83% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.68 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 69% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
• Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W • Al Khaleej Saihat home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Al-Fateh away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Form edge: Al Khaleej Saihat lead by 0.60 PPG (1.40 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Al Khaleej Saihat): Poisson projects 2.30 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Al-Fateh): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.68 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al Khaleej Saihat 7/10, Al-Fateh 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Al Khaleej Saihat — Al Khaleej Saihat at 56% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture