Al Khaleej Saihat 0-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 35%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1W 4D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.725 / defence 0.836 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.836 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.224. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 40 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al-Ahli Jeddah's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.91 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.725 / def 0.836 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.836 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.72x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.01
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
1.77
0.85
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.85 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 11W 11D 18L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 10L across 40 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 4W 7D 9L from 20 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.88 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 21W 9D 10L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.95 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 55%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 65% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 65% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.85 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.72 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 40%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.