Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Al Riyadh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 62% and Al Riyadh 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al Riyadh 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Riyadh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.859 | Al Riyadh attack 0.783 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.476. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 45 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al Riyadh 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 / Al Riyadh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / def 0.859 | Al Riyadh attack 0.783 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.10) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.93
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.96
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
2%
43.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.99 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 23W 10D 12L from 45 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 23L across 45 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 14W 2D 6L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 7D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.02 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Riyadh 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 64% (Al Riyadh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 68% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 64% of Al Riyadh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.