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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Al Riyadh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Riyadh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.30 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Al Riyadh winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 59% and Al Riyadh 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Riyadh 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 xG and Al Riyadh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.032 | Al Riyadh attack 0.962 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad FC games / 34 Al Riyadh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 44% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Al Riyadh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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