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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Riyadh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Riyadh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 xG and Al Riyadh 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 26%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights