🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Riyadh.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 November 2025 at 15:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Al Riyadh — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 67% and Al Riyadh 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Riyadh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 xG and Al Riyadh 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.893 / defence 0.937 | Al Riyadh attack 0.823 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.545. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad FC games / 42 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 3.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights