🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 4-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Raed 20%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Raed's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights