Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Al-Ittihad FC) versus 2.50 (Al-Qadisiyah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 62% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 0.91 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.858 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.694 / defence 0.552. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.552 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.694 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 13% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 13% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 0.91 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / def 0.858 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.694 / def 0.552 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 13% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.10) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.55), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
13%
7.65
23%
4.33
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.06
2.14
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
7.65
13%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
12%
8.53
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
65.24
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.14 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 10D 12L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 45 outings (31W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 14W 2D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.50 points per game from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 5L in their last 45 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 68% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.