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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-5 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.06 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights