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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Okhdood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.69 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Al Okhdood attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al Okhdood 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights