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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Okhdood.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC host Al Okhdood at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 0D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ittihad FC's 20% rate and Al Okhdood's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Okhdood, with 1 draws in between.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 5–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 64% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al Okhdood 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.863 / defence 0.762 | Al Okhdood attack 0.614 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.462. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Al-Ittihad FC games / 50 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.

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