Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Nassr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.55 / defence 0.82 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.89. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights