Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.55x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.61
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.40
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.40 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.