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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Najma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Najma 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 xG and Al Najma 0.70 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Draw 25% | Al Najma 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Najma 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Najma's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.28. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights