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Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 31, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Kholood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG and Al Kholood 1.36 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Kholood landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Al Kholood attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 29%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al Kholood 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Kholood's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights