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Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 45% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 34%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.96. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights