Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.30 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Al-Hazm have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 59% versus Al-Hazm 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Hazm 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.925 / defence 1.031 | Al-Hazm attack 0.873 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad FC games / 34 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Hazm 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 / Al-Hazm 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.925 / def 1.031 | Al-Hazm attack 0.873 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 August 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.74
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.25
Al-Hazm xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.25 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 7D 11L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. Al-Hazm haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 1.62 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 10W 1D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 4, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 41%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 53% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 53% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.