Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.30 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Al-Fateh.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 62% and Al-Ittihad FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 44% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.54 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / defence 0.969 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.106 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Fateh games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.54 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / def 0.969 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.106 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 7W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.93
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.03
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 16W 7D 11L from 34 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 6D 5L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.47 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 65%, Al-Ittihad FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Fateh) and 59% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Fateh's games and 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Fateh's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.