Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 67% and Al-Fayha 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 66% | Al-Fayha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.388 / defence 0.897 | Al-Fayha attack 0.838 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.389. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Al-Ittihad FC games / 64 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Fayha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 / Al-Fayha 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.388 / def 0.897 | Al-Fayha attack 0.838 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 67% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.39) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.84x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.2%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.54
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.42
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
1%
71.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.04 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 38W 11D 15L from 64 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 23L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 23W 3D 6L from 32 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.08 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 38W 11D 15L in their last 64 games (1.95 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Al-Ittihad FC, 62% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ittihad FC and 62% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 62% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 18% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fayha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.