Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Al-Fateh have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 63% and Al-Fateh 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Al-Fateh 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 xG and Al-Fateh 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.139 / defence 1.004 | Al-Fateh attack 0.968 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al-Ittihad FC games / 44 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 4.00. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 / Al-Fateh 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.139 / def 1.004 | Al-Fateh attack 0.968 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al-Fateh xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 February 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 49% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 6W | Draws 3 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.80
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.36
Al-Fateh xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
4%
27.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.36 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 9D 12L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (10W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.14 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 52%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 38% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.