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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.61 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 33%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights